The recent Business of Cannabis Summit in New York City brought together industry professionals at the trendy Wythe Hotel in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, for a day focused on tackling the cannabis industry’s toughest challenges: price compression, retail survival, and the slow but steady shift from legacy to legal markets. The conversations offered a candid look at what it takes to survive and thrive as New York’s regulated cannabis industry matures. Many speakers agreed that while consumer demand is there, the framework that supports retailers is still developing, creating a volatile environment.

Joanne Wilson, owner and CEO of Gotham Dispensaries, offered a candid take on the current retail climate, warning that now is not the time to buy when asked about future expansion plans. “The market’s going to fall,” she said, predicting that many New York dispensary owners, especially small operators who invested personal and family funds, will face financial hardship as taxes and operating costs outpace returns. “It’s really… the whole thing is just a shambles,” Wilson added. Many panelists throughout the day were blunt about their dissatisfaction with the Office of Cannabis Management’s rollout of the New York market. Several attendees said they remain hopeful, but stressed the need for more consistent enforcement and clearer rules of engagement for retailers and brands.

David Vautrin, CEO of Fluent, echoed her caution, advising new entrants to start small. “Go for a smaller space,” he said. “A lot of folks went big in the beginning, and the overhead is enormous. Your costs are only going up while your margins are going down. The tax situation is grim.” With sales volume softening and price compression tightening profits, Vautrin said retailers must operate lean and avoid getting “too far over your skis.”

Vautrin points to being brand-centric. “Because we’re restricted to three adult-use stores, our biggest opportunity has really been in wholesale,” he said. “Our wholesale business is growing very rapidly, and we’re servicing a few hundred customers already.”

From a retail perspective, Vautrin said success stresses the importance of having the right SKU selection to build sticky customer relationships. There is a dizzying number of strains available. “Retailers need to have a great menu, a good variety, and a very well-educated team in order to sell these products and help move people up the value chain,” he said. His team partners with SeedTalent to train budtenders so they can serve as informed guides for consumers, ideally emphasizing terpene profiles and product effects, not just high THC numbers.

Has the Market Reached Its Limit?

“I think we’re there,” said Wilson. “And what’s equilibrium anyway? In ten years, maybe, but five years from now you’ll see a lot of large brands—maybe Gotham will be one of them.” She went on to explain her vision for a balanced ecosystem similar to other mature retail sectors. “There will always be large department-store-style dispensaries, but you’ll also have smaller neighborhood shops, like the local wine or nail salons, where you know the owner and just need something quick. That’s where we’ll end up in terms of balance.”

Wilson said the illicit market remains a major issue. “Every cop in New York City knows where these underground places are, and they have to be stopped, because that’s business they’re taking away from us,” she said. “If you’re going to grow a business, then give us the tools to grow a business. If they did this in the tech industry, you wouldn’t have the big tech companies you have today. They would have all walked away.”

Vautrin countered that true equilibrium is still a long way off. “We’re far from that stage,” he said. “We haven’t even captured a material chunk of the illicit market yet. In the long run, it’s going to be a branding game—brands that can build authentic relationships with customers will end up winning.” He pointed out that “gummy consumers tend to be the most loyal because they want to repeat that experience, while flower consumers tend to be the least loyal because of the variability,” suggesting that future growth will depend on how brands educate and build brand awareness.

Bridging Legacy and Legal Markets

Vladamir Batista, co-owner of Happy Munkey dispensaries, offered a more optimistic take, praising the OCM for creating “bridges instead of moats” that allow legacy operators like himself to enter the legal market. “New York has created a program where somebody who was in the illicit market can create a brand, open their own dispensary, and come to the legal market,” Batista said. “I’ve already seen that happening with people I know, and it’s going to continue.”

New York’s legal market has generated around $2 billion in revenue so far this year, and many at the summit predicted the illicit market could be $4 billion. Batista thinks it’s far higher than official estimates and is worth $8 to $10 billion. “New York City is the highest-consuming cannabis city in the world,” he said. “I keep my ear to the ground, the legacy market is definitely shrinking—it’s not as conducive as it once was because price compression in the legal market also drives down prices in the illicit market.”

He believes that as more legacy creativity and customer loyalty migrate to the regulated space, the industry will strengthen rapidly. “As more of that creativity crosses over to the legal market, more consumer emails and databases will get converted to the legal market. It’s going to get really robust, really fast,” Batista said.

Despite acknowledging challenges, he credited the state for giving social equity entrepreneurs a chance to participate. “Without programs like this, you’d lose the battle against the legacy market every time,” he said. “At the end of the day, they’ve been around for 80 years. You’re not going to overtake them—you can only embrace them and help them cross over.”

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